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|z 9781498399432
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|a 1018-5941
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|a Saxegaard, Magnus.
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|a Safe Debt and Uncertainty in Emerging Markets :
|b An Application to South Africa /
|c Magnus Saxegaard.
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|a Washington, D.C. :
|b International Monetary Fund,
|c 2014.
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|a 1 online resource (27 pages)
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|a IMF Working Papers
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|a <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required
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|a <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required
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|a Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students
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|a This paper develops a methodology for estimating a safe public debt level that would allow countries to remain below a maximum sustainable debt limit, taking into account the impact of uncertainty. Our analysis implies that fiscal policy should target a debt level well below the debt ceiling to allow space to absorb shocks that are likely to hit the economy. To illustrate our findings we apply the methodology to estimate a safe debt level for South Africa. Our results suggest that South Africa's debt ceiling is around 60 percent of GDP, although uncertainty is high. Simulations suggest targeting a debt-to-GDP ratio of 40 percent of GDP would allow South Africa to remain below this debt ceiling over the medium-term with a high degree of confidence.
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|a Mode of access: Internet
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|a IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;
|v No. 2014/231
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| 856 |
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|z Full text available on IMF
|u http://elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2014/231/001.2014.issue-231-en.xml
|z IMF e-Library
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