Do Forecasters Believe in Okun's Law? : An Assessment of Unemployment and Output Forecasts /

This paper provides an assessment of the consistency of unemployment and output forecasts. We show that, consistent with Okun's Law, forecasts of real GDP growth and the change in unemployment are negatively correlated. The Okun coefficient-the responsiveness of unemployment to growth-from fore...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Ball, Laurence
Other Authors: Jalles, Joao Tovar, Loungani, Prakash
Format: Journal
Language:English
Published: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2014.
Series:IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2014/024
Subjects:
Online Access:Full text available on IMF
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245 1 0 |a Do Forecasters Believe in Okun's Law? :   |b An Assessment of Unemployment and Output Forecasts /  |c Laurence Ball, Joao Tovar Jalles, Prakash Loungani. 
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490 1 |a IMF Working Papers 
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520 3 |a This paper provides an assessment of the consistency of unemployment and output forecasts. We show that, consistent with Okun's Law, forecasts of real GDP growth and the change in unemployment are negatively correlated. The Okun coefficient-the responsiveness of unemployment to growth-from forecasts is fairly similar to that in the data for various countries. Furthermore, revisions to unemployment forecasts are negatively correlated with revisions to real GDP forecasts. These results are based on forecasts taken from Consensus Economics for nine advanced countries since 1989. 
538 |a Mode of access: Internet 
650 7 |a Okun Coefficient  |2 imf 
650 7 |a Okun's Law  |2 imf 
650 7 |a Okun  |2 imf 
650 7 |a Unemployment  |2 imf 
650 7 |a WP  |2 imf 
651 7 |a Germany  |2 imf 
700 1 |a Jalles, Joao Tovar. 
700 1 |a Loungani, Prakash. 
830 0 |a IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;  |v No. 2014/024 
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