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|z 9781484315910
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|a 1018-5941
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|a BD-DhAAL
|c BD-DhAAL
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|a Catao, Luis.
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|a External Liabilities and Crises /
|c Luis Catao, Gian Milesi-Ferretti.
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|a Washington, D.C. :
|b International Monetary Fund,
|c 2013.
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|a 1 online resource (37 pages)
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|a IMF Working Papers
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|a <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required
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|a <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required
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|a Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students
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|a We examine the determinants of external crises, focusing on the role of foreign liabilities and their composition. Using a variety of statistical tools and comprehensive data spanning 1970-2011, we find that the ratio of net foreign liabilities (NFL) to GDP is a significant crisis predictor, and the more so when it exceeds 50 percent in absolute terms and 20 percent of the country-specific historical mean. This is primarily due to net external debt--the effect of net equity liabilities is weaker and net FDI liabilities seem if anything an offset factor. We also find that: i) breaking down net external debt into its gross asset and liability counterparts does not add significant explanatory power to crisis prediction; ii) the current account is a powerful predictor, either measured unconditionally or as deviations from conventionally estimated 'norms' iii) foreign exchange reserves reduce the likelihood of crisis more than other foreign asset holdings; iv) a parsimonious probit containing those and a handful of other variables has good predictive performance in- and out-of-sample. The latter result stems largely from our focus on external crises stricto sensu.
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|a Mode of access: Internet
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|a Milesi-Ferretti, Gian.
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|a IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;
|v No. 2013/113
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|z Full text available on IMF
|u http://elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2013/113/001.2013.issue-113-en.xml
|z IMF e-Library
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