Information Rigidities in Economic Growth Forecasts : Evidence from a Large International Panel /

We examine the behavior of forecasts for real GDP growth using a large panel of individual forecasts from 30 advanced and emerging economies during 1989-2010. Our main findings are as follows. First, our evidence does not support the validity of the sticky information model (Mankiw and Reis, 2002) f...

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Hlavní autor: Dovern, Jonas
Další autoři: Fritsche, Ulrich, Loungani, Prakash, Tamirisa, Natalia
Médium: Časopis
Jazyk:English
Vydáno: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2013.
Edice:IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2013/056
Témata:
On-line přístup:Full text available on IMF
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100 1 |a Dovern, Jonas. 
245 1 0 |a Information Rigidities in Economic Growth Forecasts :   |b Evidence from a Large International Panel /  |c Jonas Dovern, Ulrich Fritsche, Prakash Loungani, Natalia Tamirisa. 
264 1 |a Washington, D.C. :  |b International Monetary Fund,  |c 2013. 
300 |a 1 online resource (24 pages) 
490 1 |a IMF Working Papers 
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520 3 |a We examine the behavior of forecasts for real GDP growth using a large panel of individual forecasts from 30 advanced and emerging economies during 1989-2010. Our main findings are as follows. First, our evidence does not support the validity of the sticky information model (Mankiw and Reis, 2002) for describing the dynamics of professional growth forecasts. Instead, the empirical evidence is more in line with implications of "noisy" information models (Woodford, 2002; Sims, 2003). Second, we find that information rigidities are more pronounced in emerging economies than advanced economies. Third, there is evidence of nonlinearities in forecast smoothing. It is less pronounced in the tails of the distribution of individual forecast revisions than in the central part of the distribution. 
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650 7 |a Data Set  |2 imf 
650 7 |a Economic  |2 imf 
650 7 |a Forecast  |2 imf 
650 7 |a Information  |2 imf 
650 7 |a WP  |2 imf 
651 7 |a United States  |2 imf 
700 1 |a Fritsche, Ulrich. 
700 1 |a Loungani, Prakash. 
700 1 |a Tamirisa, Natalia. 
830 0 |a IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;  |v No. 2013/056 
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