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|z 9781475548242
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|a 1018-5941
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|a Das, Mitali.
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|a Chronicle of a Decline Foretold :
|b Has China Reached the Lewis Turning Point? /
|c Mitali Das, Papa N'Diaye.
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|a Washington, D.C. :
|b International Monetary Fund,
|c 2013.
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|a 1 online resource (21 pages)
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|a IMF Working Papers
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|a <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required
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|a <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required
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|a Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students
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|a China is on the eve of a demographic shift that will have profound consequences on its economic and social landscape. Within a few years the working age population will reach a historical peak, and then begin a precipitous decline. This fact, along with anecdotes of rapidly rising migrant wages and episodic labor shortages, has raised questions about whether China is poised to cross the Lewis Turning Point, a point at which it would move from a vast supply of low-cost workers to a labor shortage economy. Crossing this threshold will have far-reaching implications for both China and the rest of the world. This paper empirically assesses when the transition to a labor shortage economy is likely to occur. Our central result is that on current trends, the Lewis Turning Point will emerge between 2020 and 2025. Alternative scenarios-with higher fertility, greater labor participation rates, financial reform or higher productivity-may peripherally delay or accelerate the onset of the turning point, but demographics will be the dominant force driving the depletion of surplus labor.
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|a Mode of access: Internet
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|a N'Diaye, Papa.
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|a IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;
|v No. 2013/026
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|z Full text available on IMF
|u http://elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2013/026/001.2013.issue-026-en.xml
|z IMF e-Library
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