Growth Forecast Errors and Fiscal Multipliers /
This paper investigates the relation between growth forecast errors and planned fiscal consolidation during the crisis. We find that, in advanced economies, stronger planned fiscal consolidation has been associated with lower growth than expected, with the relation being particularly strong, both st...
| Hovedforfatter: | |
|---|---|
| Andre forfattere: | |
| Format: | Tidsskrift |
| Sprog: | English |
| Udgivet: |
Washington, D.C. :
International Monetary Fund,
2013.
|
| Serier: | IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;
No. 2013/001 |
| Online adgang: | Full text available on IMF |
| Summary: | This paper investigates the relation between growth forecast errors and planned fiscal consolidation during the crisis. We find that, in advanced economies, stronger planned fiscal consolidation has been associated with lower growth than expected, with the relation being particularly strong, both statistically and economically, early in the crisis. A natural interpretation is that fiscal multipliers were substantially higher than implicitly assumed by forecasters. The weaker relation in more recent years may reflect in part learning by forecasters and in part smaller multipliers than in the early years of the crisis. |
|---|---|
| Emne beskrivelse: | <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required |
| Fysisk beskrivelse: | 1 online resource (43 pages) |
| Format: | Mode of access: Internet |
| ISSN: | 1018-5941 |
| Adgang: | Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students |