Exogenous Shocks and Growth Crises in Low-Income Countries : A Vulnerability Index /

This paper develops a new index which provides early warning signals of a growth crisis in the event of large external shocks in low-income countries. Multivariate regression analysis and a univariate signaling approach are used to map information from a parsimonious set of underlying policy, struct...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autor principal: Dabla-Norris, Era
Otros Autores: Bal Gunduz, Yasemin
Formato: Revista
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2012.
Colección:IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2012/264
Acceso en línea:Full text available on IMF
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245 1 0 |a Exogenous Shocks and Growth Crises in Low-Income Countries :   |b A Vulnerability Index /  |c Era Dabla-Norris, Yasemin Bal Gunduz. 
264 1 |a Washington, D.C. :  |b International Monetary Fund,  |c 2012. 
300 |a 1 online resource (41 pages) 
490 1 |a IMF Working Papers 
500 |a <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required 
500 |a <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required 
506 |a Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students 
520 3 |a This paper develops a new index which provides early warning signals of a growth crisis in the event of large external shocks in low-income countries. Multivariate regression analysis and a univariate signaling approach are used to map information from a parsimonious set of underlying policy, structural, and institutional indicators into a composite vulnerability index. The results show that vulnerabilities to a growth crisis in low-income countries declined significantly from their peaks in the early 1990s, but have risen in recent years as fiscal policy buffers were expended in the wake of the global financial crisis.a. 
538 |a Mode of access: Internet 
700 1 |a Bal Gunduz, Yasemin. 
830 0 |a IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;  |v No. 2012/264 
856 4 0 |z Full text available on IMF  |u http://elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2012/264/001.2012.issue-264-en.xml  |z IMF e-Library