Oil and the World Economy : Some Possible Futures /

This paper, using a six-region DSGE model of the world economy, assesses the GDP and current account implications of permanent oil supply shocks hitting the world economy at an unspecified future date. For modest-sized shocks and conventional production technologies the effects are modest. But for l...

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Dettagli Bibliografici
Autore principale: Kumhof, Michael
Altri autori: Muir, Dirk
Natura: Periodico
Lingua:English
Pubblicazione: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2012.
Serie:IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2012/256
Accesso online:Full text available on IMF
Descrizione
Riassunto:This paper, using a six-region DSGE model of the world economy, assesses the GDP and current account implications of permanent oil supply shocks hitting the world economy at an unspecified future date. For modest-sized shocks and conventional production technologies the effects are modest. But for larger shocks, for elasticities of substitution that decline as oil usage is reduced to a minimum, and for production functions in which oil acts as a critical enabler of technologies, GDP growth could drop significantly. Also, oil prices could become so high that smooth adjustment, as assumed in the model, may become very difficult.
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Descrizione fisica:1 online resource (31 pages)
Natura:Mode of access: Internet
ISSN:1018-5941
Accesso:Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students