Public Debt Dynamics : The Effects of Austerity, Inflation, and Growth Shocks /

We study how macroeconomic shocks affect U.S. public debt dynamics using a VAR with debt feedback. Following a fiscal austerity shock, the debt ratio initially declines and then returns to its pre-shock path. Yet, the effect is not statistically significant. In a weak economic environment, the likel...

Fuld beskrivelse

Bibliografiske detaljer
Hovedforfatter: Hasanov, Fuad
Andre forfattere: Cherif, Reda
Format: Tidsskrift
Sprog:English
Udgivet: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2012.
Serier:IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2012/230
Online adgang:Full text available on IMF
LEADER 01717cas a2200253 a 4500
001 AALejournalIMF012160
008 230101c9999 xx r poo 0 0eng d
020 |c 5.00 USD 
020 |z 9781475510553 
022 |a 1018-5941 
040 |a BD-DhAAL  |c BD-DhAAL 
100 1 |a Hasanov, Fuad. 
245 1 0 |a Public Debt Dynamics :   |b The Effects of Austerity, Inflation, and Growth Shocks /  |c Fuad Hasanov, Reda Cherif. 
264 1 |a Washington, D.C. :  |b International Monetary Fund,  |c 2012. 
300 |a 1 online resource (28 pages) 
490 1 |a IMF Working Papers 
500 |a <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required 
500 |a <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required 
506 |a Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students 
520 3 |a We study how macroeconomic shocks affect U.S. public debt dynamics using a VAR with debt feedback. Following a fiscal austerity shock, the debt ratio initially declines and then returns to its pre-shock path. Yet, the effect is not statistically significant. In a weak economic environment, the likelihood of a self-defeating austerity shock is much higher than in normal times. An inflation shock only slightly reduces the debt ratio for a few quarters. A positive growth shock unambiguously lowers debt. In our specification, the debt ratio is stationary, whereas a VAR excluding debt may imply an explosive debt path. 
538 |a Mode of access: Internet 
700 1 |a Cherif, Reda. 
830 0 |a IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;  |v No. 2012/230 
856 4 0 |z Full text available on IMF  |u http://elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2012/230/001.2012.issue-230-en.xml  |z IMF e-Library