A New Heuristic Measure of Fragility and Tail Risks : Application to Stress Testing /

This paper presents a simple heuristic measure of tail risk, which is applied to individual bank stress tests and to public debt. Stress testing can be seen as a first order test of the level of potential negative outcomes in response to tail shocks. However, the results of stress testing can be mis...

Fuld beskrivelse

Bibliografiske detaljer
Hovedforfatter: Schmieder, Christian
Andre forfattere: Kinda, Tidiane, Loukoianova, Elena, Taleb, Nassim
Format: Tidsskrift
Sprog:English
Udgivet: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2012.
Serier:IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2012/216
Online adgang:Full text available on IMF
LEADER 02084cas a2200277 a 4500
001 AALejournalIMF012124
008 230101c9999 xx r poo 0 0eng d
020 |c 5.00 USD 
020 |z 9781475505665 
022 |a 1018-5941 
040 |a BD-DhAAL  |c BD-DhAAL 
100 1 |a Schmieder, Christian. 
245 1 2 |a A New Heuristic Measure of Fragility and Tail Risks :   |b Application to Stress Testing /  |c Christian Schmieder, Tidiane Kinda, Nassim Taleb, Elena Loukoianova. 
264 1 |a Washington, D.C. :  |b International Monetary Fund,  |c 2012. 
300 |a 1 online resource (24 pages) 
490 1 |a IMF Working Papers 
500 |a <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required 
500 |a <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required 
506 |a Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students 
520 3 |a This paper presents a simple heuristic measure of tail risk, which is applied to individual bank stress tests and to public debt. Stress testing can be seen as a first order test of the level of potential negative outcomes in response to tail shocks. However, the results of stress testing can be misleading in the presence of model error and the uncertainty attending parameters and their estimation. The heuristic can be seen as a second order stress test to detect nonlinearities in the tails that can lead to fragility, id est, provide additional information on the robustness of stress tests. It also shows how the measure can be used to assess the robustness of public debt forecasts, an important issue in many countries. The heuristic measure outlined here can be used in a variety of situations to ascertain an ordinal ranking of fragility to tail risks. 
538 |a Mode of access: Internet 
700 1 |a Kinda, Tidiane. 
700 1 |a Loukoianova, Elena. 
700 1 |a Taleb, Nassim. 
830 0 |a IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;  |v No. 2012/216 
856 4 0 |z Full text available on IMF  |u http://elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2012/216/001.2012.issue-216-en.xml  |z IMF e-Library