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|z 9781475505450
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|a Gumata, Nombulelo.
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|a A Financial Conditions Index for South Africa /
|c Nombulelo Gumata, Eliphas Ndou, Nir Klein.
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|a Washington, D.C. :
|b International Monetary Fund,
|c 2012.
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|a 1 online resource (20 pages)
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|a IMF Working Papers
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|a <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required
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|a <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required
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|a Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students
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|a The main purpose of this paper is to construct a financial conditions index (FCI) for South Africa. The analysis extracts the index by applying two alternative approaches (principal component analysis and Kalman filter), which identify an unobservable common factor from a group of external and domestic financial indicators. The alternative estimated FCIs, which share a similar trajectory over time, seem to have a powerful predictive information for the near-term GDP growth (up to four quarters), and they outperform the South African Reserve Bank's (SARB) leading indicator as well as individual financial variables. Their recent dynamics suggest that following a strong recovery in late-2009 and 2010, reflecting in part domestic factors such as systematic reductions in the policy rate, the rebound in real economic activity, and a benign inflationary environment, the financial conditions have deteriorated in recent months, though not as sharply as in end-2008. Given their relatively high predictive power regarding GDP growth, a further deterioration may imply that economic activity is likely to slow in the period ahead.
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|a Mode of access: Internet
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|a Klein, Nir.
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|a Ndou, Eliphas.
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|a IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;
|v No. 2012/196
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|z Full text available on IMF
|u http://elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2012/196/001.2012.issue-196-en.xml
|z IMF e-Library
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