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|z 9781475502633
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|a 1018-5941
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|a Celasun, Oya.
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|a Commodity Prices and Inflation Expectations in the United States /
|c Oya Celasun, Lev Ratnovski, Roxana Mihet.
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|a Washington, D.C. :
|b International Monetary Fund,
|c 2012.
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|a 1 online resource (25 pages)
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|a IMF Working Papers
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|a <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required
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|a <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required
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|a Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students
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|a U.S. monetary policy can remain extraordinarily accommodative only if longer-term inflation expectations stay well-anchored, including in response to commodity price shocks. We find that oil price shocks have a statistically significant, but economically small impact on longer-term inflation compensation embedded in U.S. Treasury bonds. The estimated effect is larger for the post-crisis period, and robust to controlling for measures of liquidity risk premia. Oil price shocks are also correlated with the variance of longer-term inflation expectations in the University of Michigan Survey of Consumers in the post-crisis period. These results are not attributable to looser monetary policy - oil price increases were associated with expectations of a faster monetary tightening after the crisis. Overall, the findings are consistent with some impact of commodity prices on long-term inflation expectations and/or on inflation rate risk.
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|a Mode of access: Internet
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|a Mihet, Roxana.
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|a Ratnovski, Lev.
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|a IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;
|v No. 2012/089
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|z Full text available on IMF
|u http://elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2012/089/001.2012.issue-089-en.xml
|z IMF e-Library
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