Commodity Prices and Inflation Expectations in the United States /

U.S. monetary policy can remain extraordinarily accommodative only if longer-term inflation expectations stay well-anchored, including in response to commodity price shocks. We find that oil price shocks have a statistically significant, but economically small impact on longer-term inflation compens...

Szczegółowa specyfikacja

Opis bibliograficzny
1. autor: Celasun, Oya
Kolejni autorzy: Mihet, Roxana, Ratnovski, Lev
Format: Czasopismo
Język:English
Wydane: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2012.
Seria:IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2012/089
Dostęp online:Full text available on IMF
Opis
Streszczenie:U.S. monetary policy can remain extraordinarily accommodative only if longer-term inflation expectations stay well-anchored, including in response to commodity price shocks. We find that oil price shocks have a statistically significant, but economically small impact on longer-term inflation compensation embedded in U.S. Treasury bonds. The estimated effect is larger for the post-crisis period, and robust to controlling for measures of liquidity risk premia. Oil price shocks are also correlated with the variance of longer-term inflation expectations in the University of Michigan Survey of Consumers in the post-crisis period. These results are not attributable to looser monetary policy - oil price increases were associated with expectations of a faster monetary tightening after the crisis. Overall, the findings are consistent with some impact of commodity prices on long-term inflation expectations and/or on inflation rate risk.
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Opis fizyczny:1 online resource (25 pages)
Format:Mode of access: Internet
ISSN:1018-5941
Ograniczenie dostępu:Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students