Exchange-Rate Dark Matter /

Dark matter accounts for 83 percent of the matter in the universe and plays a central role in cosmology modeling. This paper argues that an analogous form of dark matter plays a similarly important role in international macroeconomics. Exchange-rate dark matter is invisible, but its existence can be...

Ausführliche Beschreibung

Bibliographische Detailangaben
1. Verfasser: Evans, Martin
Format: Zeitschrift
Sprache:English
Veröffentlicht: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2012.
Schriftenreihe:IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2012/066
Online Zugang:Full text available on IMF
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520 3 |a Dark matter accounts for 83 percent of the matter in the universe and plays a central role in cosmology modeling. This paper argues that an analogous form of dark matter plays a similarly important role in international macroeconomics. Exchange-rate dark matter is invisible, but its existence can be inferred from observations on real exchange rates and interest rates. I first show that dark matter is the dominant driver of short- and medium-term changes in real exchange rates for the G-7 countries; accounting for more than 90 percent of the variance at the five-year horizon. I then develop a model in which risk shocks account for dark matter's role as a driver of exchange-rate dynamics and other macro variables. 
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