Systemic Real and Financial Risks : Measurement, Forecasting, and Stress Testing /
This paper formulates a novel modeling framework that delivers: (a) forecasts of indicators of systemic real risk and systemic financial risk based on density forecasts of indicators of real activity and financial health; (b) stress-tests as measures of the dynamics of responses of systemic risk ind...
| मुख्य लेखक: | |
|---|---|
| अन्य लेखक: | |
| स्वरूप: | पत्रिका |
| भाषा: | English |
| प्रकाशित: |
Washington, D.C. :
International Monetary Fund,
2012.
|
| श्रृंखला: | IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;
No. 2012/058 |
| ऑनलाइन पहुंच: | Full text available on IMF |
| सारांश: | This paper formulates a novel modeling framework that delivers: (a) forecasts of indicators of systemic real risk and systemic financial risk based on density forecasts of indicators of real activity and financial health; (b) stress-tests as measures of the dynamics of responses of systemic risk indicators to structural shocks identified by standard macroeconomic and banking theory. Using a large number of quarterly time series of the G-7 economies in 1980Q1-2010Q2, we show that the model exhibits significant out-of sample forecasting power for tail real and financial risk realizations, and that stress testing provides useful early warnings on the build-up of real and financial vulnerabilities. |
|---|---|
| वस्तु वर्णन: | <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required |
| भौतिक वर्णन: | 1 online resource (41 pages) |
| स्वरूप: | Mode of access: Internet |
| आईएसएसएन: | 1018-5941 |
| अभिगमन: | Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students |