Does Money Matter for U.S. Inflation? : Evidence from Bayesian VARs /
We use Bayesian estimation techniques to investigate whether money growth Granger-causes inflation in the United States. We test for Granger-causality out-of-sample and find, perhaps surprisingly given recent theoretical arguments, that including money growth in simple VAR models of inflation does s...
| Hlavní autor: | |
|---|---|
| Další autoři: | |
| Médium: | Časopis |
| Jazyk: | English |
| Vydáno: |
Washington, D.C. :
International Monetary Fund,
2008.
|
| Edice: | IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;
No. 2008/076 |
| On-line přístup: | Full text available on IMF |
| Shrnutí: | We use Bayesian estimation techniques to investigate whether money growth Granger-causes inflation in the United States. We test for Granger-causality out-of-sample and find, perhaps surprisingly given recent theoretical arguments, that including money growth in simple VAR models of inflation does systematically improve out-of-sample forecasting accuracy. This holds for a long forecasting sample 1960-2005, as well for more recent subperiods, including the Volcker and Greenspan eras. However, the contribution of money to inflation forecasting accuracy is quantitatively limited and tends to be smaller in recent subperiods, in particular in models that also include information on real GDP growth and interest rates. |
|---|---|
| Popis jednotky: | <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required |
| Fyzický popis: | 1 online resource (17 pages) |
| Médium: | Mode of access: Internet |
| ISSN: | 1018-5941 |
| Přístup: | Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students |