Stochastic Volatilities and Correlations, Extreme Values and Modeling the Macroeconomic Environment, Under Which Brazilian Banks Operate /

Using monthly data for a set of variables, we examine the out-of-sample performance of various variance/covariance models and find that no model has consistently outperformed the others. We also show that it is possible to increase the probability mass toward the tails and to match reasonably well t...

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Bibliografske podrobnosti
Glavni avtor: Souto, Marcos
Drugi avtorji: Barnhill, Theodore
Format: Revija
Jezik:English
Izdano: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2007.
Serija:IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2007/290
Online dostop:Full text available on IMF
Opis
Izvleček:Using monthly data for a set of variables, we examine the out-of-sample performance of various variance/covariance models and find that no model has consistently outperformed the others. We also show that it is possible to increase the probability mass toward the tails and to match reasonably well the historical evolution of volatilities by changing a decay factor appropriately. Finally, we implement a simple stochastic volatility model and simulate the credit transition matrix for two large Brazilian banks and show that this methodology has the potential to improve simulated transition probabilities as compared to the constant volatility case. In particular, it can shift CTM probabilities towards lower credit risk categories.
Opis knjige/članka:<strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required
<strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required
Fizični opis:1 online resource (52 pages)
Format:Mode of access: Internet
ISSN:1018-5941
Dostop:Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students