The Use of Encompassing Tests for Forecast Combinations /

The paper proposes an algorithm that uses forecast encompassing tests for combining forecasts. The algorithm excludes a forecast from the combination if it is encompassed by another forecast. To assess the usefulness of this approach, an extensive empirical analysis is undertaken using a U.S. macroe...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autor Principal: Kisinbay, Turgut
Formato: Revista
Idioma:English
Publicado: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2007.
Series:IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2007/264
Subjects:
Acceso en liña:Full text available on IMF
Descripción
Summary:The paper proposes an algorithm that uses forecast encompassing tests for combining forecasts. The algorithm excludes a forecast from the combination if it is encompassed by another forecast. To assess the usefulness of this approach, an extensive empirical analysis is undertaken using a U.S. macroecoomic data set. The results are encouraging as the algorithm forecasts outperform benchmark model forecasts, in a mean square error (MSE) sense, in a majority of cases.
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Descrición Física:1 online resource (21 pages)
Formato:Mode of access: Internet
ISSN:1018-5941
Acceso:Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students