IMF Research Bulletin, March 2010.

This paper provides a brief overview of the latest research on the ability of forecasters to predict recessions. The paper highlights that few recessions have been forecast before their onset. Forecasters tend to be excessively cautious and do not revise their forecasts promptly and sufficiently to...

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Библиографические подробности
Соавтор: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept
Формат: Журнал
Язык:English
Опубликовано: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2010.
Серии:IMF Research Bulletin; IMF Research Bulletin ; No. 2010/001
Online-ссылка:Full text available on IMF
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520 3 |a This paper provides a brief overview of the latest research on the ability of forecasters to predict recessions. The paper highlights that few recessions have been forecast before their onset. Forecasters tend to be excessively cautious and do not revise their forecasts promptly and sufficiently to reflect incoming news. Nor do they fully take into account interdependence among economies. This paper also focuses on robust growth determinants highlighting that a fundamental problem confronting researchers is the lack of an explicit theory identifying the determinants of growth. 
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