IMF Research Bulletin, March 2010.

This paper provides a brief overview of the latest research on the ability of forecasters to predict recessions. The paper highlights that few recessions have been forecast before their onset. Forecasters tend to be excessively cautious and do not revise their forecasts promptly and sufficiently to...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autor Corporativo: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept
Formato: Revista
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2010.
Colección:IMF Research Bulletin; IMF Research Bulletin ; No. 2010/001
Acceso en línea:Full text available on IMF
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520 3 |a This paper provides a brief overview of the latest research on the ability of forecasters to predict recessions. The paper highlights that few recessions have been forecast before their onset. Forecasters tend to be excessively cautious and do not revise their forecasts promptly and sufficiently to reflect incoming news. Nor do they fully take into account interdependence among economies. This paper also focuses on robust growth determinants highlighting that a fundamental problem confronting researchers is the lack of an explicit theory identifying the determinants of growth. 
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