Exchange Rate Forecasting Techniques, Survey Data, and Implications for the Foreign Exchange Market.

This paper examines the dynamics of the foreign exchange market. The first half addresses a number of key questions regarding the forecasts of future exchange rates made by market participants, by means of updated estimates using survey data. Here we follow most of the theoretical and empirical lite...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autor Corporativo: International Monetary Fund
Formato: Revista
Idioma:English
Publicado: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 1990.
Series:IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 1990/043
Acceso en liña:Full text available on IMF
Descripción
Summary:This paper examines the dynamics of the foreign exchange market. The first half addresses a number of key questions regarding the forecasts of future exchange rates made by market participants, by means of updated estimates using survey data. Here we follow most of the theoretical and empirical literature in acting as if all market participants share the same expectation. The second half then addresses the possibility of heterogeneous expectations, particularly the distinction between 'chartists' and 'fundamentalists,' and the implications for trading in the foreign exchange market and for the formation of speculative bubbles.
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ISSN:1018-5941
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