Speculative Attacks and Currency Crises : The Mexican Experience /

This paper estimates a speculative attack model of currency crises in order to identify the role of economic fundamentals and any early warning signals of a potential currency crisis. The data from the Mexican economy was used to illustrate the model. Based on the results, a deterioration in fundame...

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Hlavní autor: Otker, Inci
Další autoři: Pazarbasioglu, Ceyla
Médium: Časopis
Jazyk:English
Vydáno: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 1995.
Edice:IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 1995/112
On-line přístup:Full text available on IMF
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245 1 0 |a Speculative Attacks and Currency Crises :   |b The Mexican Experience /  |c Inci Otker, Ceyla Pazarbasioglu. 
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300 |a 1 online resource (38 pages) 
490 1 |a IMF Working Papers 
500 |a <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required 
500 |a <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required 
506 |a Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students 
520 3 |a This paper estimates a speculative attack model of currency crises in order to identify the role of economic fundamentals and any early warning signals of a potential currency crisis. The data from the Mexican economy was used to illustrate the model. Based on the results, a deterioration in fundamentals appears to have generated high one-step-ahead probabilities for the regime changes during the sample period 1982-1994. Particularly, increases in inflation differentials, appreciations of the real exchange rate, foreign reserve losses, expansionary monetary and fiscal policies, and increases in the share of short-term foreign currency debt appear to have contributed to the market pressures and regime changes in that period. 
538 |a Mode of access: Internet 
700 1 |a Pazarbasioglu, Ceyla. 
830 0 |a IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;  |v No. 1995/112 
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