Fiscal Expectations Under the Stability and Growth Pact : Evidence from Survey Data /

The paper uses survey data to analyze whether financial market expectations on government budget deficits changed in France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom during the period of the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP). Our findings indicate that accuracy of financial expert deficit forecasts incr...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Poplawski Ribeiro, Marcos
Other Authors: Rulke, Jan-Christoph
Format: Journal
Language:English
Published: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2011.
Series:IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2011/048
Online Access:Full text available on IMF
Description
Summary:The paper uses survey data to analyze whether financial market expectations on government budget deficits changed in France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom during the period of the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP). Our findings indicate that accuracy of financial expert deficit forecasts increased in France. Convergence between the European Commission's and market experts' deficit forecasts also increased in France, Italy, and the United Kingdom, particularly during the period after SGP's reform in 2005. Yet, convergence between markets' forecasts and those of the French, German, and Italian national fiscal authorities seems not to have increased significantly during the SGP.
Item Description:<strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required
<strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required
Physical Description:1 online resource (40 pages)
Format:Mode of access: Internet
ISSN:1018-5941
Access:Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students