Tax Revenue Response to the Business Cycle /

This paper examines tax revenue during the business cycle by estimating the relationship between tax revenue efficiency and the output gap. We find a positive and significant relationship between these variables; results are consistent for quarterly and annual data, and across advanced and developin...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Sancak, Cemile
Other Authors: Velloso, Ricardo, Xing, Jing
Format: Journal
Language:English
Published: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2010.
Series:IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2010/071
Online Access:Full text available on IMF
Description
Summary:This paper examines tax revenue during the business cycle by estimating the relationship between tax revenue efficiency and the output gap. We find a positive and significant relationship between these variables; results are consistent for quarterly and annual data, and across advanced and developing economies. We also find that a worsening (improvement) in the VAT C-efficiency is driven by shifts in consumption patterns and changes in tax evasion during contractions (expansions). A key implication is that, particularly during major economic booms and downturns, policy makers should look beyond simple, long-run revenue elasticities and incorporate into their analysis the effects of the economic cycle on tax revenue efficiency.
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Physical Description:1 online resource (22 pages)
Format:Mode of access: Internet
ISSN:1018-5941
Access:Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students