How Good Are Ex Ante Program Evaluation Techniques? : The Case of School Enrollment in PROGRESA /

This paper evaluates a microsimulation technique by comparing the simulated outcome of a program with its actual effect. The ex ante evaluation is carried out for a conditional cash transfer program, where poor households were given money if the children attended school. A model of occupational choi...

Täydet tiedot

Bibliografiset tiedot
Päätekijä: Bornhorst, Fabian
Aineistotyyppi: Aikakauslehti
Kieli:English
Julkaistu: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2009.
Sarja:IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2009/187
Linkit:Full text available on IMF
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245 1 0 |a How Good Are Ex Ante Program Evaluation Techniques? :   |b The Case of School Enrollment in PROGRESA /  |c Fabian Bornhorst. 
264 1 |a Washington, D.C. :  |b International Monetary Fund,  |c 2009. 
300 |a 1 online resource (35 pages) 
490 1 |a IMF Working Papers 
500 |a <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required 
500 |a <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required 
506 |a Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students 
520 3 |a This paper evaluates a microsimulation technique by comparing the simulated outcome of a program with its actual effect. The ex ante evaluation is carried out for a conditional cash transfer program, where poor households were given money if the children attended school. A model of occupational choice is used to simulate the expected impact of the program. The results suggest that the transfer would indeed increase school attendance and do more so among girls than boys. While the simulated effect tends to be larger than the actual effect, the latter lies within bootstrapped confidence intervals of the simulation. 
538 |a Mode of access: Internet 
830 0 |a IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;  |v No. 2009/187 
856 4 0 |z Full text available on IMF  |u http://elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2009/187/001.2009.issue-187-en.xml  |z IMF e-Library