Commodity Price Volatility, Cyclical Fluctuations, and Convergence : What is Ahead for Inflation in Emerging Europe? /

This paper assesses the role of international commodity prices, cyclical fluctuations, and convergence in driving inflation in 18 European emerging economies. Country specific VARs and panel estimates indicate that international commodity price shocks have a significant impact on domestic inflation,...

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Bibliografski detalji
Glavni autor: Zoli, Edda
Format: Žurnal
Jezik:English
Izdano: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2009.
Serija:IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2009/041
Online pristup:Full text available on IMF
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506 |a Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students 
520 3 |a This paper assesses the role of international commodity prices, cyclical fluctuations, and convergence in driving inflation in 18 European emerging economies. Country specific VARs and panel estimates indicate that international commodity price shocks have a significant impact on domestic inflation, but the inflation response is asymmetric for positive and negative shocks. Cyclical fluctuations explain a relative small share of inflation variability, and the inflation response is asymmetric during upturns and downturns. Price convergence is estimated to add nearly 3 percentage points to headline inflation, for the average country whose price level is about 50 percent relative to the EU-15 average. 
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830 0 |a IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;  |v No. 2009/041 
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