Vacation Over : Implications for the Caribbean of Opening U.S.-Cuba Tourism /

An opening of Cuba to U.S. tourism would represent a seismic shift in the Caribbean's tourism industry. This study models the impact of such a potential opening by estimating a counterfactual that captures the current bilateral restriction on tourism between the two countries. After controlling...

詳細記述

書誌詳細
第一著者: Romeu, Rafael
フォーマット: 雑誌
言語:English
出版事項: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2008.
シリーズ:IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2008/162
オンライン・アクセス:Full text available on IMF
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245 1 0 |a Vacation Over :   |b Implications for the Caribbean of Opening U.S.-Cuba Tourism /  |c Rafael Romeu. 
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520 3 |a An opening of Cuba to U.S. tourism would represent a seismic shift in the Caribbean's tourism industry. This study models the impact of such a potential opening by estimating a counterfactual that captures the current bilateral restriction on tourism between the two countries. After controlling for natural disasters, trade agreements, and other factors, the results show that a hypothetical liberalization of Cuba-U.S. tourism would increase long-term regional arrivals. Neighboring destinations would lose the implicit protection the current restriction affords them, and Cuba would gain market share, but this would be partially offset in the short-run by the redistribution of non-U.S. tourists currently in Cuba. The results also suggest that Caribbean countries have in general not lowered their dependency on U.S. tourists, leaving them vulnerable to this potential change. 
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