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|z 9781451865554
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|a 1018-5941
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|a Tanner, Evan.
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|a Probabilistic Sustainability of Public Debt :
|b A Vector Autoregression Approach for Brazil, Mexico, and Turkey /
|c Evan Tanner, Issouf Samake.
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|a Washington, D.C. :
|b International Monetary Fund,
|c 2006.
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|a 1 online resource (42 pages)
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|a IMF Working Papers
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|a <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required
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|a <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required
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|a Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students
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|a This paper examines the sustainability of fiscal policy under uncertainty in three emerging market countries, Brazil, Mexico, and Turkey. For each country, we estimate a vector autoregression (VAR) that includes fiscal and macroeconomic variables. Retrospectively, a historical decomposition shows by how much debt accumulation reflects unsustainable policy, adverse shocks, or both. Prospectively, Monte Carlo techniques reveal the primary surplus that is required to keep the debt/GDP ratio from rising in all but the worst 50 percent, 25 percent, and 10 percent of circumstances. Such a value-at-risk approach presents a clearer menu of policy options than currently used frameworks.
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|a Mode of access: Internet
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|a Samake, Issouf.
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|a IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;
|v No. 2006/295
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| 856 |
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|z Full text available on IMF
|u http://elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2006/295/001.2006.issue-295-en.xml
|z IMF e-Library
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