Nonlinearity in Deviations From Uncovered Interest Parity : An Explanation of the Forward Bias Puzzle /

We provide empirical evidence that deviations from uncovered interest rate parity (UIP) display significant nonlinearities, consistent with theories based on transaction costs or limits to speculation. This evidence suggests that the forward bias documented in the literature may be less indicative o...

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Bibliografiska uppgifter
Huvudupphovsman: Valente, Giorgio
Övriga upphovsmän: Leon, Gene, Sarno, Lucio
Materialtyp: Tidskrift
Språk:English
Publicerad: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2006.
Serie:IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2006/136
Länkar:Full text available on IMF
Beskrivning
Sammanfattning:We provide empirical evidence that deviations from uncovered interest rate parity (UIP) display significant nonlinearities, consistent with theories based on transaction costs or limits to speculation. This evidence suggests that the forward bias documented in the literature may be less indicative of major market inefficiencies than previously thought. Monte Carlo experiments allow us to reconcile these results with the large empirical literature on the forward bias puzzle since we show that, if the true process of UIP deviations were of the nonlinear form we consider, estimation of conventional spot-forward regressions would generate the anomalies documented in previous research.
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Fysisk beskrivning:1 online resource (44 pages)
Materialtyp:Mode of access: Internet
ISSN:1018-5941
Tillgång:Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students