Primary Surplus Behavior and Risks to Fiscal Sustainability in Emerging Market Countries : A "Fan-Chart" Approach /

This paper proposes a probabilistic approach to public debt sustainability analysis (DSA) using "fan charts." These depict the magnitude of risks-upside and downside-surrounding public debt projections as a result of uncertain economic conditions and policies. We propose a simulation algor...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Celasun, Oya
Other Authors: Debrun, Xavier, Ostry, Jonathan
Format: Journal
Language:English
Published: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2006.
Series:IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2006/067
Online Access:Full text available on IMF