Long-Run Productivity Shifts and Cyclical Fluctuations : Evidence for Italy /

Using unobserved stochastic components and Kalman filter techniques, the paper assesses the relative importance of transitory and permanent shifts in Italian real GDP within a production function framework. Evidence suggests that the increase in hours worked that has accompanied pension and labor ma...

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Hlavní autor: Sgherri, Silvia
Médium: Časopis
Jazyk:English
Vydáno: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2005.
Edice:IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2005/228
On-line přístup:Full text available on IMF
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520 3 |a Using unobserved stochastic components and Kalman filter techniques, the paper assesses the relative importance of transitory and permanent shifts in Italian real GDP within a production function framework. Evidence suggests that the increase in hours worked that has accompanied pension and labor market reforms accounts for the bulk of low-frequency variation in growth, but points to factor utilization as the main driver of business cycle fluctuations. In contrast with the predictions of standard Real Business Cycle models, a positive shock to the underlying rate of total factor productivity growth generates a slight decline in hours, whereas the response of output to the same shock is found to be positive. 
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