Estimating the Implicit Inflation Target : An Application to U.S. Monetary Policy /

This paper proposes a new method of estimating the Taylor rule with a time-varying implicit inflation target and a time-varying natural rate of interest. The inflation target and the natural rate are modeled as random walks and are estimated using maximum likelihood and the Kalman filter. I apply th...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Leigh, Daniel
Format: Journal
Language:English
Published: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2005.
Series:IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2005/077
Online Access:Full text available on IMF
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520 3 |a This paper proposes a new method of estimating the Taylor rule with a time-varying implicit inflation target and a time-varying natural rate of interest. The inflation target and the natural rate are modeled as random walks and are estimated using maximum likelihood and the Kalman filter. I apply this method to U.S. monetary policy over the past 25 years and find considerable time variation in the implicit target, confirming hypotheses about "opportunistic disinflation" and the recent "deflation scare.". 
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