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|z 9781451856675
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|a Billmeier, Andreas.
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|a Ghostbusting :
|b Which Output Gap Measure Really Matters? /
|c Andreas Billmeier.
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|a Washington, D.C. :
|b International Monetary Fund,
|c 2004.
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|a 1 online resource (35 pages)
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|a IMF Working Papers
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|a <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required
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|a <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required
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|a Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students
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|a This paper investigates various output gap measures in a simple inflation forecasting framework. Reflecting the cyclical position of an economy, an (unobservable) output gap has important implications for economic analysis. I construct and compare common output gap measures for five European countries. Since output above potential reflects domestic inflationary pressures, including a gap could improve the accuracy of autoregressive inflation forecasting. This assertion is tested in a simple simulated out-of-sample forecasting exercise for the period 1990-2002. The main conclusions are that an output gap rarely provides useful information and that there is no single best output gap measure across countries.
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|a Mode of access: Internet
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|a IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;
|v No. 2004/146
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| 856 |
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|z Full text available on IMF
|u http://elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2004/146/001.2004.issue-146-en.xml
|z IMF e-Library
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