Assessing Early Warning Systems : How Have they Worked in Practice? /

Since 1999, the IMF's staff has been tracking several early-warning-system (EWS) models of currency crisis. The results have been mixed. One of the long-horizon models has performed well relative to pure guesswork and to available non-model-based forecasts, such as agency ratings and private an...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autor Principal: Berg, Andrew
Outros autores: Borensztein, Eduardo, Pattillo, Catherine
Formato: Revista
Idioma:English
Publicado: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2004.
Series:IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2004/052
Acceso en liña:Full text available on IMF
Descripción
Summary:Since 1999, the IMF's staff has been tracking several early-warning-system (EWS) models of currency crisis. The results have been mixed. One of the long-horizon models has performed well relative to pure guesswork and to available non-model-based forecasts, such as agency ratings and private analysts' currency crisis risk scores. The data do not speak clearly on the other long-horizon EWS model. The two short-horizon private sector models generally performed poorly.
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ISSN:1018-5941
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