Predicting Sovereign Debt Crises /

We develop an early-warning model of sovereign debt crises. A country is defined to be in a debt crisis if it is classified as being in default by Standard and Poor's, or if it has access to nonconcessional IMF financing in excess of 100 percent of quota. By means of logit and binary recursive...

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Autor principal: Schimmelpfennig, Axel
Altres autors: Manasse, Paolo, Roubini, Nouriel
Format: Revista
Idioma:English
Publicat: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2003.
Col·lecció:IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2003/221
Accés en línia:Full text available on IMF
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Sumari:We develop an early-warning model of sovereign debt crises. A country is defined to be in a debt crisis if it is classified as being in default by Standard and Poor's, or if it has access to nonconcessional IMF financing in excess of 100 percent of quota. By means of logit and binary recursive tree analysis, we identify macroeconomic variables reflecting solvency and liquidity factors that predict a debt-crisis episode one year in advance. The logit model predicts 74 percent of all crises entries while sending few false alarms, and the recursive tree 89 percent while sending more false alarms.
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Descripció física:1 online resource (41 pages)
Format:Mode of access: Internet
ISSN:1018-5941
Accés:Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students