Anticipating Arrears to the IMF Early Warning Systems /

This paper attempts to predict the incidence of arrears to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) by modifying and applying two of the major early warning systems for currency crises: the "signals" approach proposed by Kaminsky, Lizondo, and Reinhart (1997) and the probit-based alternative...

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Hlavní autor: Oka, Chikako
Médium: Časopis
Jazyk:English
Vydáno: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2003.
Edice:IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2003/018
On-line přístup:Full text available on IMF
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Shrnutí:This paper attempts to predict the incidence of arrears to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) by modifying and applying two of the major early warning systems for currency crises: the "signals" approach proposed by Kaminsky, Lizondo, and Reinhart (1997) and the probit-based alternative developed by Berg and Pattillo (1998). The results, based on both in-sample and out-of-sample tests, appear encouraging. While the unique nature of IMF arrears poses some challenges, the models could be useful tools for identifying countries at high risk of incurring arrears to the IMF.
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Fyzický popis:1 online resource (35 pages)
Médium:Mode of access: Internet
ISSN:1018-5941
Přístup:Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students