Comparing Projections and Outcomes of IMF-Supported Programs /

'Program numbers' from a sample of IMF-supported programs are studied as if they were forecasts, through statistical analyses of the relationship between projections and outcomes for growth, inflation, and three balance of payments concepts. Statistical bias is found only for projections o...

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Xehetasun bibliografikoak
Egile nagusia: Phillips, Steven
Beste egile batzuk: Musso, Alberto
Formatua: Aldizkaria
Hizkuntza:English
Argitaratua: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2001.
Saila:IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2001/045
Sarrera elektronikoa:Full text available on IMF
Deskribapena
Gaia:'Program numbers' from a sample of IMF-supported programs are studied as if they were forecasts, through statistical analyses of the relationship between projections and outcomes for growth, inflation, and three balance of payments concepts. Statistical bias is found only for projections of inflation and official reserves. Statistical efficiency can be rejected for all variables except growth, suggesting that some program projections were less accurate than they might have been. Nevertheless, most projections are found to have some predictive value. Since several findings are shown to be sample-dependent, the full-sample results should be interpreted cautiously.
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Deskribapen fisikoa:1 online resource (34 pages)
Formatua:Mode of access: Internet
ISSN:1018-5941
Sartu:Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students