Predictable Movements in Yen/DM Exchange Rates /

This paper examines the relevance of PPP, the adjustment channel of real exchange rate and the predictability of the movement in nominal exchange rate by studying the behavior of yen/DM exchange rate, using cointegration method. Results support PPP and find that the real exchange rate is mean-revert...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autor Principal: Kong, Janet
Formato: Revista
Idioma:English
Publicado: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2000.
Series:IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2000/143
Acceso en liña:Full text available on IMF
Descripción
Summary:This paper examines the relevance of PPP, the adjustment channel of real exchange rate and the predictability of the movement in nominal exchange rate by studying the behavior of yen/DM exchange rate, using cointegration method. Results support PPP and find that the real exchange rate is mean-reverting. The change in the nominal exchange rate exhibits significant auto-regressive property. These findings imply that movements in the nominal yen/DM exchange rate is actually predictable. The error-correction model and a simple first order autoregressive model both outperform the random walk model in out-of-sample forecasting.
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Descrición Física:1 online resource (36 pages)
Formato:Mode of access: Internet
ISSN:1018-5941
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