Currency and Banking Crises : The Early Warnings of Distress /

The abruptness and virulence of the 1997 Asian crises have led many to claim that these crises are of a new breed and were thus unforecastable. This paper examines 102 financial crises in 20 countries and concludes that the Asian crises are not of a new variety. Overall, the 1997 Asian crises, as we...

詳細記述

書誌詳細
第一著者: Kaminsky, Graciela
フォーマット: 雑誌
言語:English
出版事項: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 1999.
シリーズ:IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 1999/178
オンライン・アクセス:Full text available on IMF
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520 3 |a The abruptness and virulence of the 1997 Asian crises have led many to claim that these crises are of a new breed and were thus unforecastable. This paper examines 102 financial crises in 20 countries and concludes that the Asian crises are not of a new variety. Overall, the 1997 Asian crises, as well as previous crises elsewhere, occur when economies are in distress, making the degree of fragility of the economy a useful indicator of future crises. Based on this idea, the paper proposes different composite leading indicators of crises, evaluated in terms of accuracy both in-sample and out-of-sample. 
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