The future incidence, prevalence and costs of stroke in the UK
This article was published in Age and Ageing [ © The Author(s) 2020. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Geriatrics Society. All rights reserved.] and the definite version is available at: https://doi.org/10.1093/ageing/afz163 The Journal's website is at: https://acade...
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2022
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| Accés en línia: | http://hdl.handle.net/10361/16557 https://doi.org/10.1093/ageing/afz163 |
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10361-165572022-04-21T21:01:35Z The future incidence, prevalence and costs of stroke in the UK King, Derek Wittenberg, Raphael Patel, Anita Quayyum, Zahid Berdunov, Vladislav Knapp, Martin Brac James P. Grant School of Public Health Costs Incidence Older people Stroke Prevalence Projections This article was published in Age and Ageing [ © The Author(s) 2020. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Geriatrics Society. All rights reserved.] and the definite version is available at: https://doi.org/10.1093/ageing/afz163 The Journal's website is at: https://academic.oup.com/ageing/article/49/2/277/5707457?login=true Background we project incidence and prevalence of stroke in the UK and associated costs to society to 2035. We include future costs of health care, social care, unpaid care and lost productivity, drawing on recent estimates that there are almost 1 million people living with stroke and the current cost of their care is £26 billion. Methods we developed a model to produce projections, building on earlier work to estimate the costs of stroke care by age, gender and other characteristics. Our cell-based simulation model uses the 2014-based Office for National Statistics population projections; future trends in incidence and prevalence rates of stroke derived from an expert consultation exercise; and data from the Office for Budget Responsibility on expected future changes in productivity and average earnings. Results between 2015 and 2035, the number of strokes in the UK per year is projected to increase by 60% and the number of stroke survivors is projected to more than double. Under current patterns of care, the societal cost is projected to almost treble in constant prices over the period. The greatest increase is projected to be in social care costs—both public and private—which we anticipate will rise by as much as 250% between 2015 and 2035. Conclusion the costs of stroke care in the UK are expected to rise rapidly over the next two decades unless measures to prevent strokes and to reduce the disabling effects of strokes can be successfully developed and implemented. Published 2022-04-21T05:48:00Z 2022-04-21T05:48:00Z 2020 2020-01-20 Journal Article King, D., Wittenberg, R., Patel, A., Quayyum, Z., Berdunov, V., & Knapp, M. (2020). The future incidence, prevalence and costs of stroke in the UK. Age and Ageing, 49(2), 277-282. doi:10.1093/ageing/afz163 http://hdl.handle.net/10361/16557 https://doi.org/10.1093/ageing/afz163 en_US https://academic.oup.com/ageing/article/49/2/277/5707457 Age and Ageing application/pdf Oxford Academic |
| institution |
Brac University |
| collection |
Institutional Repository |
| language |
en_US |
| topic |
Costs Incidence Older people Stroke Prevalence Projections |
| spellingShingle |
Costs Incidence Older people Stroke Prevalence Projections King, Derek Wittenberg, Raphael Patel, Anita Quayyum, Zahid Berdunov, Vladislav Knapp, Martin The future incidence, prevalence and costs of stroke in the UK |
| description |
This article was published in Age and Ageing [ © The Author(s) 2020. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Geriatrics Society. All rights reserved.] and the definite version is available at: https://doi.org/10.1093/ageing/afz163 The Journal's website is at: https://academic.oup.com/ageing/article/49/2/277/5707457?login=true |
| author2 |
Brac James P. Grant School of Public Health |
| author_facet |
Brac James P. Grant School of Public Health King, Derek Wittenberg, Raphael Patel, Anita Quayyum, Zahid Berdunov, Vladislav Knapp, Martin |
| format |
Journal Article |
| author |
King, Derek Wittenberg, Raphael Patel, Anita Quayyum, Zahid Berdunov, Vladislav Knapp, Martin |
| author_sort |
King, Derek |
| title |
The future incidence, prevalence and costs of stroke in the UK |
| title_short |
The future incidence, prevalence and costs of stroke in the UK |
| title_full |
The future incidence, prevalence and costs of stroke in the UK |
| title_fullStr |
The future incidence, prevalence and costs of stroke in the UK |
| title_full_unstemmed |
The future incidence, prevalence and costs of stroke in the UK |
| title_sort |
future incidence, prevalence and costs of stroke in the uk |
| publisher |
Oxford Academic |
| publishDate |
2022 |
| url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10361/16557 https://doi.org/10.1093/ageing/afz163 |
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