The black swan : the impact of the highly improbable / Nassim Nicholas Taleb.
Publication details: New York : Random House Trade Paperbacks, c2010.Edition: Second edition, Random trade pbk. editionDescription: xxxiii, 444 pages : illustrations ; 20 cmISBN:- 9780679604181 (electronic bk.)
- 0679604189 (electronic bk.)
- 9780812973815 (pbk.)
- 003.54 22
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Ayesha Abed Library General Stacks | Ayesha Abed Library General Stacks | 003.54 TAL (Browse shelf(Opens below)) | 1 | Checked out | 14/07/2024 | 3010036411 | |
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003.54 COV Elements of information theory / | 003.54 LIM Visual complexity : | 003.54 MAC Information theory, inference, and learning algorithms / | 003.54 TAL The black swan : the impact of the highly improbable / | 003.83 DIS Discrete-event system simulation / | 003.857 STE Does God play dice? : | 003 BOY Systems analysis and modeling : |
"Originally published in hardcover and in slightly different form in the United States ... by Random House in 2007."-T.p. verso.
Includes bibliographical references (pages [401]-429) and index.
Prologue -- Umberto Eco's antilibrary, or how we seek validation. The apprenticeship of an empirical skeptic ; Yevgenia's black swan ; The speculator and the prostitute ; One thousand and one days, or how not to be a sucker ; Confirmation shmonfirmation! ; The narrative fallacy ; Living in the antechamber of hope ; Giacomo Casanova's unfailing luck : the problem of silent evidence ; The Ludic fallacy, or the uncertainty of the nerd -- We just can't predict. The scandal of prediction ; How to look for bird poop ; Epistemocracy, a dream ; Appelles the Painter, or what do you do if you cannot predict? -- Those gray swans of Extremistan. From Mediocristan to Extremistan and back ; The bell curve, that great intellectual fraud ; The aesthetics of randomness ; Locke's madmen, or bell curves in the wrong places ; The uncertainty of the phony -- The end. Half and half, or how to get even with the black swan -- Epilogue : Yevgenia's white swans -- Postscript essay: on robustness an fragility, deeper philosophical and empirical reflections. Learning from mother nature, the oldest and the wisest ; Why I do all this walking, or how systems become fragile ; Margaritas ante porcos ; Asperger and the ontological black swan ; (Perhaps) the most useful problem in the history of modern philosophy ; Fourth quadrant, the solution to that most useful of problems ; What to do with the fourth quadrant ; Ten principles for a black-swan-robust society ; Amor fati: how to become indestructible.
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Examines the role of the unexpected, discussing why improbable events are not anticipated or understood properly, and how humans rationalize the black swan phenomenon to make it appear less random.
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