Scenario Analysis with the DD-PD Mapping Approach : Stock Market Shocks and U.S. Corporate Default Risk /

This paper introduces the quantile regression- based Distance-to-Default to Probability of Default (DD-PD) mapping, which links individual firms' DD to their real world PD. Since changes in the DD depend on a handful of parameters, the mapping easily accommodates shocks arising from quantitativ...

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Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor principal: Chan-Lau, Jorge
Formato: Periódico
Idioma:English
Publicado em: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2021.
coleção:IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2021/143
Assuntos:
Acesso em linha:Full text available on IMF
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245 1 0 |a Scenario Analysis with the DD-PD Mapping Approach :   |b Stock Market Shocks and U.S. Corporate Default Risk /  |c Jorge Chan-Lau. 
264 1 |a Washington, D.C. :  |b International Monetary Fund,  |c 2021. 
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490 1 |a IMF Working Papers 
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520 3 |a This paper introduces the quantile regression- based Distance-to-Default to Probability of Default (DD-PD) mapping, which links individual firms' DD to their real world PD. Since changes in the DD depend on a handful of parameters, the mapping easily accommodates shocks arising from quantitative and narrative scenarios informed by expert judgment. At end-2020, risks from stock market corrections in the U.S. are concentrated in the energy, financial and technology sectors, and additional bank capital needs could be large. The paper concludes discussing uses of the mapping beyond PD valuation suitable for capital structure analysis, credit portfolio management, and long-term scenario planning analysis. 
538 |a Mode of access: Internet 
650 7 |a Default Risk, Stock Markets and Quantile Regression  |2 imf 
650 7 |a Foreign Exchange  |2 imf 
650 7 |a Informal Economy  |2 imf 
650 7 |a Probability Of Default and Distance-To-Default  |2 imf 
650 7 |a Underground Econom  |2 imf 
830 0 |a IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;  |v No. 2021/143 
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