02018cas a2200253 a 4500 AALejournalIMF018607 230101c9999 xx r poo 0 0eng d 5.00 USD 9781484363980 1018-5941 BD-DhAAL BD-DhAAL Bluedorn, John. Is the Cycle the Trend? : Evidence From the Views of International Forecasters / John Bluedorn, Daniel Leigh. Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2018. 1 online resource (29 pages) IMF Working Papers <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students We revisit the conventional view that output fluctuates around a stable trend by analyzing professional long-term forecasts for 38 advanced and emerging market economies. If transitory deviations around a trend dominate output fluctuations, then forecasters should not change their long-term output level forecasts following an unexpected change in current period output. By contrast, an analysis of Consensus Economics forecasts since 1989 suggest that output forecasts are super-persistent-an unexpected 1 percent upward revision in current period output typically translates into a revision of ten year-ahead forecasted output by about 2 percent in both advanced and emerging markets. Drawing upon evidence from the behavior of forecast errors, the persistence of actual output is typically weaker than forecasters expect, but still consistent with output shocks normally having large and permanent level effects. Mode of access: Internet Leigh, Daniel. IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2018/163 Full text available on IMF http://elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2018/163/001.2018.issue-163-en.xml IMF e-Library