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01951cas a2200265 a 4500 |
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|c 5.00 USD
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|z 9781451860214
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|a 1018-5941
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|a BD-DhAAL
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|a Danninger, Stephan.
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|a The Political Economy of Revenue-Forecasting Experience From Low-Income Countries /
|c Stephan Danninger, Annette Kyobe, M. Cangiano.
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|a Washington, D.C. :
|b International Monetary Fund,
|c 2005.
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| 300 |
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|a 1 online resource (31 pages)
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|a IMF Working Papers
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|a <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required
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|a <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required
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|a Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students
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|a This paper analyzes interference and timeliness in the revenue-forecasting process, using new data on revenue-forecasting practices in low-income countries. Interference is defined as the occurrence of a significant deviation from purely technical forecasts. A theoretical model explains forecasting interference through government corruption. The data broadly supports the model, and the results are robust to alternative explanations. The paper also constructs three indices-transparency, formality, and organizational simplicity-that characterize revenue-forecasting practices, and assesses their effectiveness in producing an upfront-that is, timely-budget envelope. More transparent and simple forecasting processes lead to early budget constraints, while formality has no measurable effect.
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|a Mode of access: Internet
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|a Cangiano, M.
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|a Kyobe, Annette.
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|a IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;
|v No. 2005/002
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| 856 |
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|z Full text available on IMF
|u http://elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2005/002/001.2005.issue-002-en.xml
|z IMF e-Library
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